Sunday, 15 September, 2019

'Negative surprises' cloud outlook for British economy, warns International Monetary Fund

GETTYthe IMF sees Berlin and Paris’ economy growth predictions shrink by 0.3 percent by the end of 2018 GETTYthe IMF sees Berlin and Paris’ economy growth predictions shrink by 0.3 percent by the end of 2018
Rhonda Young | 17 July, 2018, 09:39

However, the latest growth rate projection for India is slightly less - 0.1 percentage point in 2018 and 0.3 percentage points in 2019 - than its April projections.

A series of "negative surprises" in the British economy early in the year has prompted the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its growth forecasts for the country by more than expected.

The rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronised, reads the outlook.

Fears of a global supply crunch following outages in Libya and Venezuela have led to an nearly 5% jump in crude oil prices since April when International Monetary Fund released its WEO.

GETTYThe IMF says the state of France’s economy will further worsen in 2019
GETTYThe IMF says the state of France’s economy will further worsen in 2019

The IMF added in its latest World Economic Outlook update for this month: "The balance of risks has shifted further to the downside, including in the short term".

The IMF also warned that a global trade war threatened worldwide growth and flagged uncertainties in the EU.

"The widespread political malaise driving many current policy risks, including on the trade front, has roots in several countries' experiences of noninclusive growth and structural transformation, heightened by the financial crisis of 2007-09 and the difficulties that followed", said Obstfeld, who added that without intervention, the political future would darken.

The IMF, however, noted that even the U.S. growth could decelerate over the next few years, as the long cyclical recovery ran its course and the effects of temporary fiscal stimulus waned. While the United States faces greater risks from trade, the fund said that Trump's tax cuts would also mean the American economy would continue to grow in line with its previous estimates of around 2.4 per cent this year.

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The IMF has scaled down economic growth in Argentina and Brazil, besides India, among emerging market economies.

The IMF noted that because of strong employment and firming inflation, the US Federal Reserve was on track to continue raising interest rates over the next two years, tightening its monetary policy compared with other advanced economies and strengthening the US dollar.

The fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out.

"As the focus of global retaliation, the U.S. finds a relatively high share of its exports taxed in global markets in such a broader trade conflict, and it is therefore especially vulnerable", Obstfeld added.

Mob in Indonesia slaughters 300 crocodiles in revenge killing
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Beyond the immediate threat from weaker levels of worldwide trade, the IMF said that greater use of protectionist measures could hinder business investment, disrupt global supply chains, slow the spread of productivity-boosting technologies and raise the price of consumer goods.

The report noted that political uncertainty had risen in Europe since April and the European Union faced fundamental political challenges regarding migration policy, fiscal governance, norms concerning the rule of law, and the euro area institutional architecture.

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