Sunday, 15 September, 2019

Soybean Prices Hit A 10-Year Low

Scott Olson  Getty Images Soybean harvesting in Minnesota Scott Olson Getty Images Soybean harvesting in Minnesota
Rhonda Young | 16 July, 2018, 12:44

The pivotal question for USA farmers is how long bargain-shopping nations can fill the void.

When the planting season begins in Brazil in September, growers are expected to expand soybean seedings by 2.4 million hectares, leading to a record crop of 120.5 million tonnes in 2018/19, some 2.5% larger than the projected USA harvest.

That compares with its estimate of 95.97 million for the 2017/18 crop year and, according to US government records, would be the lowest import level since 2016/17.

Last week, the US administration imposed a 25-percent additional tariff on 34 billion dollars worth of imports from China, forcing China to retaliate on USA imports.

The comments from a senior COFCO executive come amid concerns that hefty import tariffs applied by Beijing on American goods, including soybeans, will inflate costs for farmers and potentially increase retail prices of foods, like pork, the nation's favorite meat.

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"Exports jumped a little more than 30,000 tonnes in market year 2017-18 to almost 80,000 tonnes in large part because of increased demand from India", the report said.

China's retaliatory tariffs on USA soya beans, threatened for weeks and enacted Friday, have driven down prices and triggered a wave of bargain shopping by importers in other countries stocking up on cheap U.S. supplies, according to a Reuters analysis of government data.

USDA expects soybean consumption to reach 43,000 tonnes for market year 2018-19.

USA farmers are expected to harvest 4.31 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels from 2017, according to USDA's National Acreage Statistics Service or NASS. The changing trade flows and lower consumption will probably drive global soybean inventories up to a record and boost United States stockpiles as American shipments drop.

Soybean prices remained in the doldrums on Thursday.

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But with farmer margins already razor-thin due to low soya bean prices, Chinese demand will be sorely missed this fall, when prices typically enter a seasonal slump, Sutter said.

"Soybean production has more than tripled from 35,000 tonnes in market year 2011-12", the report said.

According to Hood, in 2017 China bought more than half of the soybean crops harvested in the U.S. Arkansas was responsible for 3.5 million acres of that harvest.

As of Thursday, the price of a bushel of soybeans fell to $8.42, which is the lowest price seen since October of 2007.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on almost all Chinese imports to the US.

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