Tuesday, 11 December, 2018

International Monetary Fund upgrades outlook on Russian Federation as economy recovers

Pakistan       by Usman Arshad | Published Pakistan by Usman Arshad | Published
Rhonda Young | 10 October, 2018, 15:53

Eric LeCompte, a financial expert and executive director of Jubilee USA said: "We are seeing growing debt crises in many developing economies, at the same time, we see risky and speculative behaviour on the raise".

This comes after the Government also revived upwards growth projection for this year, saying the economy is showing signs of recovery despite a number of challenges and risks.

But China's involvement could also bring potential risks, he said.

Its chief economist said further trade barriers would hit households, businesses and the wider economy. In September, Trump imposed tariffs on almost $200 billion of Chinese imports, with China responding with higher tariffs on about $60 billion of USA imports.

In a tweet, Mr Trump warned Beijing against seeking to influence the forthcoming U.S. midterm elections. The reserves had fallen to $8.4 billion last week, which were enough to cover only one and half month's imports bill.

What are the risks to global growth?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday forecasted a growth rate of 7.3 per cent for India in the current year of 2018 and that of 7.4 per cent in 2019.

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Downside to this situation, he said, is that the request for a bailout will more likely than not ensure that the Pakistani rupee remains at very weak levels.

While the global economy is still on track to match last year's pace, which was the strongest since 2011, the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the overall performance masked divergence with mounting weakness in emerging markets from Brazil to Turkey.

The People's Bank of China announced on Sunday that it would add more liquidity to the economy by cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves at the central bank.

"Should market participants start pricing in the possibility of protracted trade tensions, financial conditions could tighten significantly, increasing the tail risk to global growth and financial stability", according to Global Financial Stability Report issued by the International Monetary Fund at its annual meetings in Bali.

The Washington-based lender said a health check on the wealth of 31 nations found nearly £1tn had been wiped off the wealth of the UK's public sector - equivalent to 50% of GDP - putting it in the second weakest position, with only Portugal in a worse state.

Mr Obstfeld said the world would become a "poorer and more risky place" unless world leaders worked together to raise living standards, improve education and reduce inequality.

According to the WEO report, growth is on the mend for sub-Saharan Africa, with the region's average growth projected to rise to 3.1 per cent in 2018 (from 2.7 per cent in 2017) and 3.8 per cent in 2019.

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The Government estimates the economy will expand 6,3 percent against the initial projection of 4,5 percent.

It believes Brexit will fundamentally change parts of the United Kingdom economy, leaving some workers out of a job.

It's not just the world's two most powerful economies that stand to be affected by trade policy.

As per Adnan's assessment, Pakistan would require a 15 to 20 per cent devaluation before going to the IMF, and with the decision to approach the Fund for a bailout taken, further depreciation may be needed considering the new conditions that they may impose.

The IMF predicts that United Kingdom public borrowing will keep falling over the next few years.

However, Chancellor Philip Hammond is still expected to borrow around £16bn in 2023 to plug the gap between tax revenues and public spending.

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