Monday, 22 October, 2018

World stocks tumble after International Monetary Fund slashes economic growth forecast

A container ship is seen docked at the port of New York and New Jersey in Bayonne New Jersey US Sept. 23 2018. Mike Segar Reuters  File A container ship is seen docked at the port of New York and New Jersey in Bayonne New Jersey US Sept. 23 2018. Mike Segar Reuters File
Rhonda Young | 11 October, 2018, 01:44

The IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook it was now predicting 3.7% global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9% growth for both years. In 2017, India had recorded a 6.7 per cent growth rate.

The IMF expects that Russia's growth will reach 1.8 percent in 2019, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

"Historically, Pakistan has achieved 3 to 3.5 percent growth rate in the first two to three years whenever we availed the International Monetary Fund program", Aslam said, adding: "It would be a big achievement if we maintain growth at 3.5 percent".

This acceleration, the world body said, reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national Goods and Services Tax), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption.

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The rupiah has indeed been under strong downward pressure, especially over the last three months, as a result of monetary tightening and stronger economic growth in the United States, which has caused higher capital outflows, and the upward trend in worldwide oil prices, which has increased Indonesia's trade deficit and consequently the current account deficit to more than 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

"India's medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7.75 per cent, benefiting from ongoing structural reform", it added.

"That is going to trigger some outflows of capital that has flown very strongly from advanced economies to emerging markets in recent years", Adrian said at a briefing in Bali on Wednesday.

"Asset valuations appear to be relatively high in some markets, notably in the United States", the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday in its latest Global Financial Stability Report.

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Growth in the 19-nation zone is forecast to slow further to 1.9 percent in 2019, unchanged from the July estimate. Instead, the Chinese maintain, they have boosted the country's economic growth and provided 70,000 jobs.

The US-based organisation says that a "no-deal" departure from the European Union could lead to fragmentation in European money markets, meaning that finance cannot flow around the system so efficiently.

The IMF also risks associated with high corporate debt, rising nonperforming loans and too much public debt overall.

Most of the "meagre gains" from growth have gone to the well-off, fuelling support for protectionism and anti-establishment leaders, said Mr Obstfeld. The report said that aggregate growth in the emerging market and developing economy group stabilised in the first half of 2018.

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The risk of a global financial crisis initiated by sharp capital outflows in emerging markets due to the divergence of monetary policies in the USA and developing countries remains small but will grow as the Federal Reserve continues to raise its interest rates, as it is expected to do this year and next.

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