Friday, 23 August, 2019

The Two Major Factors Pushing Oil Prices Higher

Lease Operator Jon Pearson checks well pressure on a lease owned by Parsley Energy in the Permian Basin near Midland Oil price TUMBLES: Crude falls as concern grows over weakening US demand
Rhonda Young | 20 January, 2019, 17:31

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as market sentiment was lifted by news that China might roll out further fiscal stimulus measures.

OPEC's monthly report showed it had made a strong start in December even before the pact went into effect, implementing the biggest month-on-month production drop in nearly two years. The price of oil remains about 20 percent up on the 18-month low registered in late December, but investors appear to remain concerned about the trade war between the U.S. and China.

The International Energy Agency on Friday raised its estimate of the increase in non-OPEC oil supply this year on the back of supply surges from Russian Federation and the United States and said participants in last month's cut agreement had "their work cut out".

Although EIA forecasts that oil prices will remain lower than during most of 2018, the forecast includes some increase in prices from December 2018 levels in early 2019 in order to keep up with demand growth and support the increased need for global oil inventories to maintain five-year average levels of demand cover.

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Production from OPEC's 14 members sank by 751,000 barrels a day last month, with just over half the reduction accounted for by Saudi Arabia, according to a report from the group's secretariat.

"It looks as if the market is coming into balance, and maybe into deficit later in the first part of the year", Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, said in a Bloomberg television interview. As of writing this article, Spot Crude oil WTIUSD is trading at $52.74 per barrel up by 1.07% on the day.

On Thursday, a report from OPEC showed its production fell sharply last month, easing energy market fears of a prolonged period of oversupply.

Falling oil exports from Iran due to US sanctions that were reimposed in November, have offered some support to fuel prices.

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"Brent average price was about $44 per barrel in 2016, $54/b in 2017 and $71/b in 2018 despite a strong fall over October-December 2018".

The price has been on two-way action driven by news influenced momentum but support gained from OPEC crude oil production and supply cut implementation has helped prevent any sharp downside move.

Meanwhile, China's crude oil imports in December soared almost 30 percent from the previous year, to average 10.35 million b/d.

This was the second time China's monthly crude imports breached 10 million b/d and the figure was 1.2 percent lower than the record high of 10.48 million b/d in November 2018, signaling robust demand.

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After her victory, The Telegraph reports that Muguruza said: "I think I'll go for breakfast now". Like, you just have to get it done.

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